SOUTHPAW: Almanac

The Almanac contains entries which apply the Southpaw rating system to analyze various aspects of major league baseball, past, present, and future.

313

Team Predictions Through 40 Games

Posted by Charles Sat, 18 May 2013 10:04:51 -0400
Filed Under: expected winning pct forecasting predictions science teams

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It's time for the first checkup on the Southpaw team predictions. Most teams hit the 40-game mark on or about 16 May.

The table shows to-date winning percentages and preseason predicted winning percentages. I also include the differences between the two. A positive difference indicates a team is over-performing our prediction.

Team	Pre-Season Win%	May 16 Win%	Act. - Pre.
New York Yankees	0.526	0.610	0.084
Tampa Bay Rays	0.564	0.500	-0.064
Boston Red Sox	0.511	0.585	0.074
Toronto Blue Jays	0.554	0.415	-0.139
Baltimore Orioles	0.464	0.575	0.111
Detroit Tigers	0.580	0.564	-0.016
Chicago White Sox	0.502	0.462	-0.040
Kansas City Royals	0.456	0.541	0.085
Cleveland Indians	0.418	0.564	0.146
Minnesota Twins	0.437	0.486	0.049
Texas Rangers	0.519	0.659	0.140
Oakland Athletics	0.557	0.476	-0.081
Anaheim Angels	0.566	0.366	-0.200
Seattle Mariners	0.465	0.488	0.023
Houston Astros	0.378	0.268	-0.110
Atlanta Braves	0.585	0.550	-0.035
Washington Nationals	0.558	0.537	-0.021
Philadelphia Phillies	0.538	0.463	-0.075
New York Mets	0.451	0.395	-0.056
Miami Marlins	0.398	0.268	-0.130
St. Louis Cardinals	0.534	0.650	0.116
Cincinnati Reds	0.537	0.610	0.073
Milwaukee Brewers	0.531	0.410	-0.121
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.429	0.585	0.156
Chicago Cubs	0.408	0.425	0.017
Arizona Diamondbacks	0.564	0.561	-0.003
San Francisco Giants	0.507	0.585	0.078
Los Angeles Dodgers	0.524	0.436	-0.088
San Diego Padres	0.492	0.450	-0.042
Colorado Rockies	0.445	0.512	0.067

At this point we are off by about 8.1% per team. That's 13.2 games per 162, about half a game worse than our predictions were at the 40-game mark last season.

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312

Defense Take Three

Posted by Joseph Thu, 09 May 2013 12:15:49 -0400
Filed Under: defense players predictions science

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This is follow-up from the last post on this topic, in which I expressed curiosity regarding whether the exclusion of short-career players and/or first basemen from my Domain-by-Age calculation would yield a more consistent defensive aging trend.

I ran the numbers and graphed the results.

In every case I excluded data from pitchers and catchers, data from before 1973, and data from players who were not on the field for 1000 defensive events during the season. More specific exclusions are noted by their respective graphs.

This graph shows all players in the set, and duplicates the graph shown in the last post with the addition of the trend line.

(click to enlarge)

This graph excludes first basemen, who accumulate far more putouts than players at other positions, to the extent that I believe they distort the results of my particular calculation.

(click to enlarge)

This graph excludes both first basemen and players who accumulated less than 5000 hitting events in their career, which should ensure that each player included provides data across a wide swath of the age range, rather than dropping out and skewing the trend.

(click to enlarge)

The close tracking of the trend line to the data points is most satisfying.

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Comment by Charles Sat, 11 May 2013 09:39:08 -0400

The trough at ages 26-27 is interesting. Or maybe it's the spike at 28? Why the roller coaster there? It goes away when the set is limited to players with long careers.

Maybe there is a pattern in how late-blooming players get called up? Could there be an influx of players moving up from AAA when they are 26-27 who aren't great and only play one season? Maybe when a star player gets hurt his replacement is most often a 26-27 year old from AAA?

Comment by Joseph Sat, 11 May 2013 14:42:03 -0400

i'd add that the players called up from AAA at that age are probably still playing pro ball specifically because they are competent defenders and despite the fact that they can't hit

Almanac

Team Predictions Through 40 Games

Defense Take Three

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